MSTR Convergence & STRC Model
Three catalysts landing in the same 12-month window
Strategy accumulates Bitcoin during the liquidity contraction at compressed prices. Then the expansion ignites — with the April 2028 halving and forced monetary easing converging in the same window.
Saylor buys at every price level — that's the strategy. But the contraction phase is where each dollar buys the most coins. If Howell's trough lands mid-2027, Strategy will have spent roughly 18 months accumulating at compressed prices while the rest of the market is fearful, illiquid, and selling. The buying doesn't stop when the expansion hits — it just gets more expensive per coin.
The expansion phase (mid-2027 to late 2029) then reprices the entire accumulated stack upward. Bitcoin correlates ~0.82 with global M2 on a 60-70 day lag, and the first 12-18 months of a liquidity expansion historically deliver the sharpest move.
Who owns Bitcoin when the expansion hits?
At projected 2027-29 holdings, the freely tradeable float shrinks dramatically. When the liquidity expansion drives new demand into a market with a shrinking float, price dynamics become non-linear.
At 2.15M BTC (scenarios 1-3), the free float drops to ~6.4M — about 31% of total supply. At 3.21M (scenario 4), it falls to ~5.4M or 26%. When the liquidity expansion drives new demand into that shrinking float, the result is the kind of supply squeeze that historically produces non-linear price moves.
How preferred shares change the per-share economics
Framework credit: Grain of Salt (@Z06Z07). STRC preferred shares fund BTC purchases without diluting common shareholders — halving dilution from 11% to 5.5% per quarter while maintaining the same 16% BTC accumulation rate.
Q4 2029: how each scenario resolves at the cycle peak
All four scenarios use the same mechanical framework — the only variables are BTC accumulation rate, share dilution rate, and Bitcoin price path.