What regime is MSTR in right now?
Where the classifier sits today
MSTR / IBIT ratio with regime context
The price ratio of MSTR close to IBIT close, with its 21-day and 50-day EMAs. The strip below shows the confirmed regime for every trading day since IBIT launched (2024-01-11).
Last 10 confirmed regime changes
A row is added only when the confirmed regime changes after surviving the 3-day confirmation window. If the classifier remains in the same regime, this table should not add daily rows.
| Date | Transition | Days in prior | MSTR/IBIT ratio | 20d rel. return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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The six regime states
How the classifier works
The classifier scores each trading day on two opposing axes — an expansion score (max 7) and a distribution score (max 8) — built from the MSTR/IBIT close-to-close ratio, its 21-day and 50-day EMAs, rolling 20-day and 60-day highs, ratio slope, drawdown from recent highs, MSTR's realized-volatility percentile, and the spread of MSTR's 5-day and 20-day total return versus IBIT.
A regime is only confirmed when the raw classification has held for at least 3 consecutive trading days. This filters out single-day noise. The table above only adds rows for confirmed regime changes, not every daily classification.
Data sources. Daily OHLCV bars for MSTR and IBIT are pulled from Yahoo Finance. IBIT history begins 2024-01-11 (the trust's inception); the chart and timeline therefore start on that date. The pipeline refreshes once per trading day after the US close.