Liquidity leads. Bitcoin, NASDAQ and crypto follow.
A public CrossBorder Capital–style tracker. Michael Howell’s work finds global liquidity Granger-causes Bitcoin with a lead concentrated around 11–13 weeks. This page advances the liquidity line by that lag and measures the same relationship versus NASDAQ and crypto.
Where liquidity stands
US net liquidity is Fed assets minus the Treasury General Account and overnight reverse repo. The broader central-bank total adds the ECB and Bank of Japan, converted to dollars. The Howell-style score averages those with private credit and cross-border funding conditions.
Advance liquidity, then watch Bitcoin
Liquidity is shifted forward by 13 weeks, so the blue line keeps running after Bitcoin’s last print. That extra stretch is the unused lead — the path Bitcoin has typically followed. Drag the lag to see why 13 weeks is the default.
Liquidity leading Bitcoin
Orange = Bitcoin USD · blue dashed = unused liquidity lead
Where the lead actually sits
Following Howell’s setup: six-week changes in the liquidity score versus six-week asset returns, at each lag from 0 to 26 weeks. The highlighted bar is the selected lead. A higher bar at 11–13 weeks means liquidity is telling you about the next quarter, not this week.
Lagged correlation of 6-week changes
corr(Δ liquidity[t], Δ asset[t + lag])Same lead, different beta
Bitcoin is the high-beta liquidity asset. NASDAQ moves with the same cycle, usually with a lower amplitude. ETH stands in for the broader crypto complex. All three charts use the same advanced-liquidity line.
Liquidity (advanced) vs NASDAQ
Purple = NASDAQ · blue dashed = unused liquidity leadLiquidity (advanced) vs crypto (ETH)
Green = ETH · blue dashed = unused liquidity leadThe pipes behind the score
US net liquidity is what markets quote most often. The global central-bank line is the closest public stand-in for Howell’s official-sector bucket. TGA and RRP are drains: when they rise, private-market liquidity falls even if the Fed’s headline balance sheet is unchanged.
US net liquidity and its parts
USD trillionsMajor central-bank assets in USD
Fed net + ECB + BoJThree-bucket proxy (z-scores)
Central banks · private money/credit · cross-border (inverted DXY & HY OAS)What this is — and is not
- Central banks: Fed total assets (WALCL) minus TGA (WTREGEN) minus overnight RRP (RRPONTSYD), plus ECB and BoJ assets converted to USD.
- Private supply: US M2 and commercial-bank credit, 156-week z-scores.
- Cross-border / funding: inverted broad dollar (DTWEXBGS) and inverted US high-yield OAS. Weaker dollar and tighter spreads = easier offshore funding.
- Broad score: equal-weight average of the three z-scores, weekly Fridays from 2015.
- Lag test: correlation of 6-week liquidity changes with 6-week asset returns at lags 0–26. Default chart advances liquidity by 13 weeks.